451
FXUS65 KGJT 062328
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
528 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- A MORE ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
WORK WEEK OUTLOOK:
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TODAY LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE RISING
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCALES SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALONGSIDE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, A FEW WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ADVECT IN MODEST POCKETS OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK LEADING TO PERIOD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FIRST PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE CAMS FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST, BUT OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS,
AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW UP HIGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT, LINGERING MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
QPF LOOKS VERY LIGHT AFTER TUESDAY.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK:
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE KEYING IN ON A ROBUST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIVE INTO THE DETAILS, THESE SYSTEMS
GENERALLY BRING AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AND WETTER WEATHER AS
THEY PASS THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE
KTEX HAS BEST CHANCE OF VCSH, LOWER CIGS AND SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THIS EVENING AT
MOST TAF SITES AND SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS WITH BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AT KTEX, KGUC, KDRO AND KASE SO INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DESPITE SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR IF ANY SHOWER PASSES BUT RAIN
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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