368
FXUS65 KGJT 070345
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
945 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- A MORE ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
WORK WEEK OUTLOOK:
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING REACHING
THE GROUND AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY WITH LIMITED CAPE SO NO
LIGHTNING YET. ANTICIPATE MAINLY VIRGA WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. FOR TUESDAY, THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BIT MORE SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS CAPE RISES TO AROUND 200 TO 400
J/KG ON AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COULD ALSO SEE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH, SUBTLE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY WITH A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW AS SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THIS ZONAL PATTERN, LEADING TO DAILY
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE RISING TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST LOCALES SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK:
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE KEYING IN ON A ROBUST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DIVE INTO THE DETAILS, THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY BRING AN
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AND WETTER WEATHER AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE
KTEX HAS BEST CHANCE OF VCSH, LOWER CIGS AND SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THIS EVENING AT
MOST TAF SITES AND SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS WITH BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AT KTEX, KGUC, KDRO AND KASE SO INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DESPITE SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR IF ANY SHOWER PASSES BUT RAIN
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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