521
FXUS65 KGJT 070530
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1130 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- A MORE ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
WORK WEEK OUTLOOK:
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING REACHING
THE GROUND AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY WITH LIMITED CAPE SO NO
LIGHTNING YET. ANTICIPATE MAINLY VIRGA WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. FOR TUESDAY, THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BIT MORE SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS CAPE RISES TO AROUND 200 TO 400
J/KG ON AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COULD ALSO SEE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH, SUBTLE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY WITH A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW AS SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THIS ZONAL PATTERN, LEADING TO DAILY
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE RISING TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST LOCALES SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK:
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE KEYING IN ON A ROBUST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DIVE INTO THE DETAILS, THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY BRING AN
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AND WETTER WEATHER AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
MIDLEVEL CEILINGS PERSIST AT KTEX, KDRO, KGUC AND KHDN AT THIS
HOUR WITH HIGHER CEILINGS NOTED FOR OTHER TAF SITES. THESE
CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED. SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES OF 20 TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT FOR NOW
INCLUDED -SHRA IN PROB30 GROUPS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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