121
FXUS65 KGJT 211807
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1207 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. IN AREAS
WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- UNSETTLED, COOLER, AND WETTER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
QUIET WEATHER
TOMORROW A WEAK PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MOSTLY VIRGA FROM THESE SHOWERS.
PATTERN SHIFT
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
JET STREAK ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY. MOST VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING SHOULD BE ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM REACHES OUR AREA, DUE TO DIFLUENCE ALOFT, PVA, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP QPF
PRETTY LOW. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. ANY VIRGA FROM SHOWERS, WHICH ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF I-70, COULD ENHANCE THE ALREADY
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STRONG GUSTS AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL.
AFTER THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES SOME ASSOCIATED PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AT
TIMES, MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE STRONG EACH AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW AROUND A TROUGH.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT DIFFERENCES
REGARDING POTENTIAL TOTALS AND TIMING REMAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KTS.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT
02Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15Z IN THE MORNING GUSTING
20 TO 30 KTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 7,000 FEET WILL
EXPERIENCE RH BELOW 15% AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH.
HOWEVER, FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NOT CRITICAL IN MOST ZONES.
FUELS ARE CRITICAL IN THE NORTHWEST COLORADO ZONES 200 AND 202
WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. RH
VALUES ARE MARGINAL IN COLORADO ZONES 200 AND 202, BUT WIND
GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH COULD OVERCOME THE RH VALUES, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-020>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-
027-029.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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