809
FXUS65 KGJT 212331
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
531 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. IN AREAS
WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTAS AND PARK RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS COULD EXACERBATE WIND CONCERNS.
- UNSETTLED, COOLER, AND WETTER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
WINDY MID-WEEK
LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN
TREKKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE COMING DAYS. MOISTURE
IS NOTABLE AS OF NOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, BUT ACCORDING TO
ENSEMBLES, AS IT REACHES THE GREAT BASIN AND, EVENTUALLY, OUR
CWA, THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. REGARDLESS,
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
AIMING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH AMPLE LIFT FROM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE UINTAS AND PARK RANGE ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED GUSTS UNDERNEATH VIRGA
SHOWERS WILL BE A CONCERN AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THOUGH.
THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH AN ALREADY WINDY AND DRY PERIOD WHICH
IS PROMPTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
(REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION).
COOLER TEMPERATURES BECOMING WETTER WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND BEYOND. THURSDAY NIGHT IS ON TRACK TO BE THE CHILLIEST OF
THE WEEK, AND COULD PROMPT FREEZE CONCERNS FOR SOME VALLEYS.
COVERAGE IS STILL IFFY AT THIS POINT, BUT IT WILL BE WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER FOLLOWING FORECAST UPDATES.
MODELS AREN'T IN GOOD AGREEMENT YET, BUT EARLY INDICATORS ARE
THAT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF INCREASED
MOISTURE. THIS COMES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE CONUS ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY PASS OVER OR NEAR
OUR CWA, ALTHOUGH TIMING ON THIS IS TOO SOON TO BE DETERMINED.
NEVERTHELESS, AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE TROUGH,
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH CURRENT PWAT ANOMALY PROJECTIONS ANYWHERE FROM 125-200% OF
NORMAL. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THIS COULD ULTIMATELY
GIVE US A LITTLE LATE-SEASON BOOST TO THE SNOWPACK, THOUGH
IT'LL TAKE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE TOTALS CAN BE
SPECULATED. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND AT
KGUC. DON'T ANTICIPATE THIS OCCURRING FOR MOST OTHER TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 ARE
MOST FAVORED TO SEE WIND GUSTS AT THIS LEVEL. PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE BREAKPOINTS. LLWS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS BEFORE 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 7,000 FEET WILL
EXPERIENCE RH BELOW 15% AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
HOWEVER, FUELS ARE ONLY CRITICAL IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO FOR
THE MOMENT. IN THESE LOCATIONS, RH IS BORDERLINE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. REGARDLESS, DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
STRONG GUSTS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLORADO
ZONES 200 AND 202. SHOULD VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
ZONES, STRONGER AND MORE ERRATIC GUSTS COULD ADD TO FIRE
CONCERNS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-020>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-
027-029.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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