776
FXUS65 KGJT 220449
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT, AND
IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL, RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTAS AND PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS COULD EXACERBATE WIND
CONCERNS.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
WINDY WEDNESDAY:
A STRONG AND COLD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TONIGHT, APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY DAYBREAK.
THERE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AT LEAST
AT THE SURFACE, MEANING ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAN WETTING RAIN. WHAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF IS WIND. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
AND MIXING WILL TAP INTO THE 100-110 KNOT JET ALOFT. AS A RESULT,
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL VALLEY ZONES IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. IN
ADDITION, DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH
ONLY PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE CRITICAL FUELS.
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL RUN NEAR-NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PARK RANGE AND EASTERN UINTAS THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES:
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A 75-
85 KNOT JET REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL BRING DOWN AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, IN SOME
LOCATIONS UP TO 40 MPH. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COOL AND POTENT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST PWATS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE IN THE 150-200% OF NORMAL RANGE, MEANING THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WETTING VALLEY RAIN AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW (<40%). REGARDLESS OF THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (>80%) THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATION VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILD SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES
APACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND AT
KGUC. DON'T ANTICIPATE THIS OCCURRING FOR MOST OTHER TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 ARE
MOST FAVORED TO SEE WIND GUSTS AT THIS LEVEL. PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE BREAKPOINTS. LLWS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS BEFORE 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 7,000 FEET WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15% AND WIND GUSTS 45-55 MPH.
HOWEVER, FUELS ARE ONLY CRITICAL IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO FOR THE
MOMENT. IN THESE LOCATIONS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BORDERLINE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AT 13-18%. REGARDLESS, DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATED STRONG GUSTS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
COLORADO ZONES 200 AND 202. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH COULD PRODUCE
STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-020>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-
027-029.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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