848
FXUS65 KGJT 221137
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT,
AND IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL, RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTAS AND PARK RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS COULD
EXACERBATE WIND CONCERNS.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
WINDY WEDNESDAY:
A STRONG AND COLD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT, APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY
DAYBREAK. THERE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AT LEAST AT THE SURFACE, MEANING ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THAN WETTING RAIN. WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF IS WIND.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND MIXING WILL TAP INTO
THE 100-110 KNOT JET ALOFT. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
VALLEY ZONES IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. IN ADDITION,
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE CRITICAL FUELS.
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL RUN NEAR-NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PARK RANGE AND EASTERN
UINTAS THROUGH THURSDAY, AS POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES:
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A
75- 85 KNOT JET REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING DOWN AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH, IN SOME LOCATIONS UP TO 40 MPH. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COOL AND POTENT TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
FORECAST PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE IN THE 150-200% OF NORMAL
RANGE, MEANING THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING VALLEY RAIN AND
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS
LOW (<40%). REGARDLESS OF THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (>80%) THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILD SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES APACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KNOTS EXPECTED. TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 ARE
FAVORED TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 7,000 FEET WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15% AND WIND GUSTS 45-55
MPH. HOWEVER, FUELS ARE ONLY CRITICAL IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
FOR THE MOMENT. IN THESE LOCATIONS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
BORDERLINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AT 13-18%.
REGARDLESS, DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED STRONG GUSTS, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLORADO ZONES 200 AND 202. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER ADJACENT
HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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