816
FXUS65 KGJT 221930
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
130 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTAS AND PARK RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS COULD EXACERBATE
WIND CONCERNS.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY PLACING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
IDAHO-WYOMING BORDER THROUGH UTAH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WYOMING AND UTAH. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING COOLING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ABOUT TEN DEGREES. AS
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE WASATCH RANGE INTO OUR REGION,
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
GUSTING 45 TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE REGION VALIDATING THE WIND
ADVISORIES ACTIVE THROUGH ALL THE LOWER VALLEYS. BE ADVISED
THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES, MAY CAUSE BRANCH AND TREE DAMAGE AND BLOW AROUND LOOSE
OBJECTS. ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY LOW CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 202
WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK GENERALLY GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AND
STRONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. ZONES 200 AND 202
WILL LIKELY HAVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES ON THIS.
A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL STEER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO EVERY DAY OR TWO BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER ONE
OF THESE DISTURBANCES DIGS DEEPER ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SATURDAY THAT WILL PULL MORE MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS PROMISING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM ISN'T BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, UP TO A QUARTER INCH
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, BUT
AT THIS POINT, ANY RAIN IS WELCOME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY IS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS
WE MOVE CLOSER TO SUNSET. SOME OF THE HIGH COUNTRY TERMINALS
COULD EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS BY THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
TODAY MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 7,000 FEET ARE EXPERIENCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15% AND WIND GUSTS 45-55 MPH. HOWEVER,
CURRENTLY FUELS ARE ONLY CRITICAL IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
HENCE, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLORADO ZONES
200 AND 202. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-020>022.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
029.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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