200
FXUS65 KGJT 230503
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VIRGA SHOWERS COULD
EXACERBATE WIND CONCERNS.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
DRY AND WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY:
DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS LIMITING
PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST
COLORADO NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER, BUT TRAFFIC CAMERAS SUGGEST
THIS IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA. THIS OBSERVATION ALIGNS WITH OUR 00Z
SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWS VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. A BAND OF VORTICITY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WHEN
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO PROMOTE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS KEEP QPF VERY LOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN A BIG PRECIPITATION
PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA, IT DOES CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
REGION THANKS TO INCREASED WINDS ALOFT AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WEAKENED, BUT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH STILL PERSIST IN SOME AREAS. STRONG AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
RETURN DAILY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE STRONGER WINDS
REMAIN OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AT A LESSER
MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES ON THE LOWER SIDE IN SOME AREAS
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY WHERE
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS MIGHT COINCIDE WITH CRITICAL FUELS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND:
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS A LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MOVES ONSHORE.
THIS LOW LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH, BUT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THE LOW SHOULD BRING INCREASED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR AREA. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA
THIS WEEKEND. THE JET SUPPORT, IN ADDITION TO ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM, COULD SUPPLY A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND IT
WILL BE WORTH WATCHING HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POSITION THIS
JET.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW BY THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT AT TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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