638
FXUS65 KGJT 240445
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 2AM TO 8AM. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
- DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST
COLORADO. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
WARMER, BREEZY END TO THE WEEK:
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS, WITH A 70-80 KNOT WESTERLY JET ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ALSO REMAIN BREEZY THANKS TO DEEP DAYTIME MIXING
TAPPING INTO THAT JET, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH EXPECTED.
SOME AREAS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70, COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. WITH
DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE AND CRITICAL FUELS, THIS HAS LED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO, WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT. WHILE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, WINDS AND HUMIDITIES
REMAIN IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RANGE. SO BE MINDFUL WITH ANY SPARK
SOURCES, SUCH AS CAMPFIRES, AGRICULTURAL BURNING, OR DRAGGING CHAINS.
COOLER, WETTER PATTERN RETURNS:
A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST SATURDAY, WITH FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 130-180% OF NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND AMPLE FORCING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS, PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOOK FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND A PARENT TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. EACH
WAVE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BETWEEN THE COOLER AIRMASS
AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
GUSTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY 9 PM. LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE STRONG GUSTS RETURN
TOMORROW AS EARLY AS 11 AM. LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO SEE THESE
GUSTS REACH 20-35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION, UP TO 45 MPH
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. FUELS REMAIN CRITICAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THEREFORE, WITH THE COMBINATION OF WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND CRITICAL FUELS, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 201 AND 202 FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ001-002-007-
008-021>023.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ200-202.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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