921
FXUS65 KGJT 120512
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1112 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. THOSE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 954 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO HIT NEAR RECORD VALUES. LIMITED MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. ON
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST CAUSING THE
WINDS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. IT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS. NOW MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND SINCE IT WILL BE SO DRY. THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH ON THURSDAY FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A WEAK FRONT.
THIS WILL COOL US DOWN BY A 5-10 DEGREES. NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE AREA. THIS IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PERHAPS IT BRINGS ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE BREAKPOINTS AND POSE NO
CONCERNS TO AIRPORT OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL
TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. THOSE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY, WHICH IS WHEN GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
40-45 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, THOSE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
MORE LOCALIZED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-290-292.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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