622
FXUS65 KGJT 130515
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1115 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 10 PERCENT.
- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL.
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS EXPECTED, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW GUSTING 25-35 MPH WITH
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN FAVORABLE LOCALES. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE, PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RH VALUES RECOVER WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO MELLOW
OUT HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BIT, YET TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL LEND A HAND TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.
BROAD ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS AGAINST
THE DIVIDE BOTH DAYS. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH,
BUT FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS TO JUST PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON THE TERRAIN. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP
INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY, PRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TOO, BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NORTHWEST COLORADO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEN CLOUDS WILL FILL IN, BECOMING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AFTER 00Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
BREAKPOINTS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS
THROUGH 18Z, THEN WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE THREAT IN THE
TAF. AT ANY RATE, MAIN CONCERNS WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE
ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE WEST. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE ON
THURSDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED FOR COZ293 THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, ALONG
WITH RECENT FUELS UPDATES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-290-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ293.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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