824
FXUS65 KGJT 131756
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 10
PERCENT, AND NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY
THREATS INCLUDE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ISOLATED STORMS TODAY:
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WILL PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL JOIN FORCES WITH THE OUR
RESIDENT WARM AND DRY AIRMASS, RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
A SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING IN EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON,
SPREADING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE SOME MARGINAL CAPE,
STRENGTHENING WIND SHEAR, AND DRY SURFACE LEVELS. STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH DRY LIGHTNING BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE SAN
JUANS TONIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD:
BROAD, ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS AGAINST
THE DIVIDE BOTH DAYS. MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AS WELL, BUT
FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS TO ONLY PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MAYBE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE TERRAIN.
STRONG, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY, PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TO
NORMAL FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES. CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS TODAY ARE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WITH KVEL AND KDRO STANDING THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE
IMPACTS SO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THESE TWO TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE MAINLY AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WITH SKC AFTER 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS BUT ANTICIPATE MORE VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS THAN
WETTING RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
AMPLIFYING HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW
RESULTING IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR COZ293. ELSEWHERE, A VERY
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN (RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS), BUT
WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG. WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
290-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ293.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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