835
FXUS65 KGJT 140354
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
954 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
WARM AND DRY
A SYSTEM PASS TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.
MOISTURE ALSO FILLS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOT MUCH CHANGES
ON FRIDAY OTHER THAN A JET APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THIS CAUSE THE
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE.
WEEKEND
ON SATURDAY A TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST CAUSING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
THIS FLOW ADVECTS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES COOL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE SO
PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES INCREASE. POST FRONTAL WINDS INCREASE
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION CAUSING HIGHS TO BE
AROUND 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PERSISTENT MOISTURE KEEPS
PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES GOING. THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THE RETURN OF
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, FORMING ON THE TERRAIN AND QUICKLY COLLAPSING IN THE
DRY AIR BLANKETING THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME VIOLENT
OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND TERMINALS. INCLUDED TEMPO CONDITIONS FOR
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS REMAIN MID TO HIGH BASED, SO NOT EXPECTING BREAKPOINT
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELDS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW
RESULTING IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR COZ293. ELSEWHERE, A VERY
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN (RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS), BUT
WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG. WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHT HIGHER WINDS NORTH OF I-70. HUMIDITY INCREASES THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH
STAYS DRY AND WINDY. HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ293.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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