475
FXUS65 KGJT 140525
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1125 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
WARM AND DRY
A SYSTEM PASS TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.
MOISTURE ALSO FILLS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOT MUCH CHANGES
ON FRIDAY OTHER THAN A JET APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THIS CAUSE THE
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE.
WEEKEND
ON SATURDAY A TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST CAUSING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
THIS FLOW ADVECTS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES COOL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE SO
PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES INCREASE. POST FRONTAL WINDS INCREASE
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION CAUSING HIGHS TO BE
AROUND 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PERSISTENT MOISTURE KEEPS
PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES GOING. THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THE RETURN OF
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH PASSING HIGH SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
BROUGHT DOWN BY THE SHOWERS BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING WILL BE LOW. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE UPVALLEY
TAF SITES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW
RESULTING IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR COZ293. ELSEWHERE, A VERY
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN (RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS), BUT
WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG. WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHT HIGHER WINDS NORTH OF I-70. HUMIDITY INCREASES THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH
STAYS DRY AND WINDY. HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ293.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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