661
FXUS65 KGJT 150456
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT,DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
ARE IN PLACE.
- A DEEP TROUGH DIPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST
CO.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DIPS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ON FRIDAY,
SENDING SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE. WELL
MIXED CONDITIONS SHOULD FIND US UNDER ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON
HERE IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
CRITICAL FUELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAVE PROMPTED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR ANOTHER DAY AND WATCHES FOR SATURDAY(LIKELY
BECOMING WARNINGS). LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OUT OF COASTAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA, TIGHTENING THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR
MASS WILL HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIKELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE AND WILL LIKELY UPGRADE TO A WARNING
IN THE COMING PACKAGE FRIDAY.
A POTENT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
PRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FOR SOUTHEAST UT AND
SOUTHWEST CO. THE MOISTURE POOL IN THE GUT OF THE TROUGH FAILS
TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY CURRENT MODEL EXPECTATIONS.
HOLDING OFF ON ADDITIONAL FIRE PRODUCTS FOR COZ290,292, AND
UTZ490, BUT THE CONCERN IS THERE CONSIDERING THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
UT AND NORTHWEST CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A SERIES OF VORT
MAXIMA LIFT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FREEZING LEVELS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN TOO
AS THE DEEP POOL OF COLD AIR FILTERS IN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SNOW ON MOUNTAIN PASSES FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTERS. THE MAIN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL HANG
UP ON THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS LEFT OVER. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND DOWN FROM NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRANSITIONAL
RIDGING BRINGS THINGS BACK NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP IN THE WORKS AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS REMAIN AT SOME SITES, BUT
WINDS WILL CALM AFTER SUNSET, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. SKC IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. DURING THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RETURN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WHERE COVERAGE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO FIRE ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL (UTZ486-487, COZ200-202-293). CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR UTZ490 AND COZ290 AND 292 WHERE COVERAGE AND
DURATION IS BEST. CONDITIONS ARE MORE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE
NORTH IN TERMS OF RH. HUMIDITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
COULD DRIVE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR COZ290,292,
AND UTZ490.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ200-202-
293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ290-292.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ486-487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ490.
DISCUSSION...LTB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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