159
FXUS65 KGJT 151818
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1218 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY,
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MEETING CRITERIA WHERE THE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- A DEEP TROUGH DIPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST
CO, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY:
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A LEADING JET STREAK AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SLIDES OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS HAS PROMPTED RED
FLAG WARNINGS AS GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO ZONES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS GUNNISON BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY, THE FOCUS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND CARVES OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE HAS PROMPTED
AN UPGRADE OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SATURDAY FOR THOSE CRITICAL ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, WHICH
NOW INCLUDES COZ203 AND 205 (COLORADO RIVER ZONES) BELOW 8000
FEET DUE TO A RECENT FUELS UPDATE TO CRITICAL STATUS. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH MOSTLY VIRGA EXPECTED DUE TO THE
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NORTH OF I-70, HENCE WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE RED FLAG.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS THE
DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA AND PRECIPITATION
INCREASES.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY,
WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO.
BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO WHERE THE DRIER AIR REMAINS, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXTEND INTO SUNDAY,
DEPENDENT ON THE FUELS STATUS. PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, SO THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
MORE FAVORED PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND
SEVERAL VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH, SO SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN PARK
RANGE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
REGARDLESS, TRAVEL ON MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD BE A BIT DICEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS HANGING ON TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
PRECIPITATION WILL HANG UP ON THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS LEFT OVER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND DOWN FROM NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRANSITIONAL RIDGING BRINGS
THINGS BACK NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL WARM UP IN THE WORKS AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING AT SOME
TERMINALS AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTS WILL BE WITHIN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. GUSTS DIE DOWN
THIS EVENING, WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS PREVAILING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WHERE COVERAGE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO FIRE ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL (UTZ486-487, COZ200-202-293). ALSO, ADDED THE I-70
CORRIDOR/COLORADO RIVER ZONES (COZ203-205) BELOW 8000 FEET DUE
TO A RECENT FUELS STATUS CHANGE TO CRITICAL. CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING (GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH) AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD,
PROMPTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR UTZ490, COZ203 AND 205 BELOW 8000 FEET, 290 AND 292
WHERE COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BEST. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
BORDERLINE ACROSS THE NORTH IN TERMS OF RH. HUMIDITY INCREASES
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD DRIVE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR COZ290, 292, AND UTZ490.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-293.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ203-205-
290-292.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ490.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page