947
FXUS65 KGJT 161755
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MEETING
CRITERIA WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- A DEEP TROUGH DIPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST
CO. STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
STRONG STORM WINDS TODAY:
EARLY SATURDAY, A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TOWARDS OUR CWA, PROMPTING OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE, BUT MOISTER MID-LEVELS PAIRED WITH AMPLE HEATING DUE TO
SPOTTY CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT SHORT-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CAM'S ARE KEYING IN ON
INVERTED-V ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POWERFUL DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW WINDS. AS OF
NOW, STORM COVERAGE IS LOOKING BEST WITHIN THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
BASIN BETWEEN 2PM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. EVEN
SO, OUTFLOWS COULD TRAVEL AS FAR AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE IN THESE REGIONS, AND SO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BE EXACERBATED SHOULD OUTFLOW WINDS REACH THESE
REGIONS.
MOISTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
AS THE LOW SWEEPS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FLOW AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH MOISTENS, AND WETTER CONDITIONS MOVE OVER THE CWA.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S STORMS SHOULD
BE BETTER PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS WITH SURFACE CONDITIONS TOO MOIST
TO CONTINUE SATURDAY'S WIND THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITHIN
THE TROUGH THOUGH, LEAVING SUNDAY'S HIGHS NEAR-NORMAL AND MONDAY'S
HIGHS 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL
FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS. FAVORED RANGES WILL BE THE UINTAS
AND PARK RANGE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST. THE NBM IS
VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL ALONG
THE US-191 MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR (>75% CHANCE), BUT LESS OPTIMISTIC ON
THAT SAME THREAT MANIFESTING THROUGH RABBIT EARS PASS (30-40%
CHANCE). OTHER MOUNTAIN PASSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
UNDER 4" OF SNOW WITH HIGHER VALUES CONFINED TO ABOVE PASS LEVEL.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES:
PRECIPITATION WILL HANG UP ON THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS LEFT OVER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP
WITH THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRIMARILY EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, BUT BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KHDN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
MOISTER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS SATURDAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. THIS HAS PROMPTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
SATURDAY FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM.
FOR THE MOST PART, GUSTS WILL BE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 30-40
MPH. HOWEVER, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS NORTH OF I-70 (PRIMARILY WITHIN THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
BASIN), ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH COULD TRAVEL LONG
DISTANCES AND COMPLICATE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITHIN THESE RED FLAG
REGIONS. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IT'LL BE KEY TO MONITOR THE SKIES
FOR VIRGA SHOWERS, WHERE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-205-
290-292.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ490.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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