600
FXUS65 KGJT 162331
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
531 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MEETING
CRITERIA WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING TO MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
THE PARK RANGE AND EASTERN UINTAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATEST
IMPACTS.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AFTERNOON STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS:
A TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FLOW
ALOFT TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, ALONG WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH. MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE
FORM OF 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH
THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY, HOWEVER, LEADING TO INVERTED-V PROFILES THAT FAVOR
STRONG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING, COULD EXACERBATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT ALREADY EXIST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE
DESERT VALLEYS OF CENTRAL-EASTERN UTAH AND CENTRAL-WESTERN COLORADO.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING.
COOLER AND WETTER:
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH SURFACE LEVELS FINALLY SATURATING, THE MAIN THREAT
WILL TRANSITION AWAY FROM WINDS AND TOWARDS WETTING RAINFALL, WITH
SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD, BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL TAKE A HIT. NORTH OF
I-70, BEHIND THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, HIGHS WILL RUN
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TO THE SOUTH, HIGHS WILL RUN CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY, WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE CORE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES
OF THE STORM CYCLE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO
AROUND 8500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 9500 FEET. MOST RANGES WILL SEE 2-4
INCHES OF FRESH SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN UINTAS AND PARK
RANGE ARE LOOKING MOST FAVORED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AMOUNTS OF 4-8
INCHES EXPECTED. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES,
AS WELL AS ALONG ANY RECENTLY OPENED SEASONAL ROADS IN THESE AREAS.
USE PRECAUTION IF TRAVELLING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TAKE A NOSEDIVE ON MONDAY AS WELL, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
PRECIPITATION WILL HANG UP ON THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS LEFT OVER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ARE NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MOST GUSTS ARE IN
THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE BUT A STRONGER GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH BROKEN
CEILINGS BEING COMMON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE
MOST PART VFR BUT SOME MVFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT UNDER AND NEAR
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. ILS BREAKPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE MET FROM TIME TO TIME FOR VARIOUS TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MOISTER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS TODAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. THIS HAS PROMPTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART, GUSTS WILL BE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 30-40
MPH. HOWEVER, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS NORTH OF I-70 (PRIMARILY WITHIN THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
BASIN), ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH COULD TRAVEL LONG
DISTANCES AND COMPLICATE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITHIN THESE RED FLAG
REGIONS. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IT'LL BE KEY TO MONITOR THE SKIES
FOR VIRGA SHOWERS, WHERE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-205-
290-292.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ490.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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