889
FXUS65 KGJT 170351
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS
FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
COOLER AND WETTER:
SHOWERS, MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST PRECIP TODAY DIDN'T
REACH THE GROUND BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE FINALLY REPORTING SOME
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA TOMORROW WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SAID
TROUGH. CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 600 J/KG INDICATE SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY SO WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WE COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING MORE RAIN THAN SEEN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE, DON'T ANTICIPATE
WINDS TO BE 'TOO' STRONG. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT WITH IT WHICH WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY, WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW MID MAY CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 6 TO 12
INCHES FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE PARK RANGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN
THE NATURE OF A FEW INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS, HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY PRODUCTS THERE. REMAINING HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CO AND UT
WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES, MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. IF TRAVELLING
OVER ANY MOUNTAIN PASSES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY, KEEP AN EYE
ON THE LATEST TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND THAT MOUNTAIN SNOW. GENERAL TROUGHINESS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING SEASONAL VALUES WEDNESDAY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONT BRINGING IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AREAS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE EAST MAY ALSO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY DO THE SAME BUT COVERAGE DOESN'T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ARE NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MOST GUSTS ARE IN
THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE BUT A STRONGER GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH BROKEN
CEILINGS BEING COMMON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE
MOST PART VFR BUT SOME MVFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT UNDER AND NEAR
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. ILS BREAKPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE MET FROM TIME TO TIME FOR VARIOUS TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY
FOR UTZ023.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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