087
FXUS65 KGJT 170534
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS
FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
COOLER AND WETTER:
SHOWERS, MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST PRECIP TODAY DIDN'T
REACH THE GROUND BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE FINALLY REPORTING SOME
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA TOMORROW WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SAID
TROUGH. CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 600 J/KG INDICATE SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY SO WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WE COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING MORE RAIN THAN SEEN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE, DON'T ANTICIPATE
WINDS TO BE 'TOO' STRONG. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT WITH IT WHICH WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY, WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW MID MAY CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 6 TO 12
INCHES FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE PARK RANGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN
THE NATURE OF A FEW INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS, HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY PRODUCTS THERE. REMAINING HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CO AND UT
WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES, MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. IF TRAVELLING
OVER ANY MOUNTAIN PASSES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY, KEEP AN EYE
ON THE LATEST TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND THAT MOUNTAIN SNOW. GENERAL TROUGHINESS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING SEASONAL VALUES WEDNESDAY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONT BRINGING IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AREAS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE EAST MAY ALSO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY DO THE SAME BUT COVERAGE DOESN'T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KHDN DUE TO LOWER CIGS. GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN EXPAND WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH EXTRA LIFT FROM APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT NEAR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS WE GET FARTHER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER AS STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EXPANDS AND LOWER
FLIGHT CRITERIA TO BE MORE OF A THREAT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY
FOR UTZ023.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page