478
FXUS65 KGJT 171753
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS
FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
COOLER AND WETTER:
SHOWERS, MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST PRECIP TODAY DIDN'T
REACH THE GROUND BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE FINALLY REPORTING SOME
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA TOMORROW WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SAID
TROUGH. CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 600 J/KG INDICATE SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY SO WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WE COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING MORE RAIN THAN SEEN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE, DON'T ANTICIPATE
WINDS TO BE 'TOO' STRONG. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT WITH IT WHICH WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY, WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW MID MAY CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 6 TO 12
INCHES FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE PARK RANGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN
THE NATURE OF A FEW INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS, HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY PRODUCTS THERE. REMAINING HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CO AND UT
WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES, MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. IF TRAVELLING
OVER ANY MOUNTAIN PASSES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY, KEEP AN EYE
ON THE LATEST TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND THAT MOUNTAIN SNOW. GENERAL TROUGHINESS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING SEASONAL VALUES WEDNESDAY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONT BRINGING IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AREAS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE EAST MAY ALSO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY DO THE SAME BUT COVERAGE DOESN'T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
IMPACT A TERMINAL WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL SUPERSEDE THE GUSTY WINDS
AFTER 00Z AS MOISTURE INCREASES. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE STRATIFORM ACTIVITY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
STARTING AFTER 03Z. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS, INCLUDING KTEX,
COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED, THOUGH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, ROUGHLY ACCOMPANYING THE TRANSITION FROM CONVECTIVE TO
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z, THEN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IS EXPECTED AS CEILINGS LOWER
AND VISIBILITY IS IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ004.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR UTZ023.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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