819
FXUS65 KGJT 172337
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN UINTA,
ELKHEAD, AND PARK MOUNTAINS.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY:
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING TODAY WHILE INCREASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM GJT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND AN INCREASE IN PWATS, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MORE RAIN
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN,
AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH TODAY'S STORMS.
WET THROUGH MONDAY:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT, BRINGING A
TRANSITION FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO MORE STRATIFORM LIKE
PRECIPITATION. THIS INCLUDES WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW. THE CENTER OF THE LOW, AND GREATEST FORCING, MOVES ACROSS
UTAH LATE TONIGHT, SO PRECIPITATION RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TOMORROW. SNOW TOTALS FAVOR
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE ABOVE 8500 FEET FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM
TOMORROW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 9 PM TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST
OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH THE DAY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TOMORROW NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FREEZE WATCHES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO NOTED. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL STRATIFORM OUT LATER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MANY PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN IN TAFS
FOR ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO
35KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS THROUGH. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THOUGH
VFR SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ004.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ023.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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