724
FXUS65 KGJT 021720
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1120 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY, FAVORING SOUTHWEST CO.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEK, WARMING TO TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
- WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
JUANS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACING THE DEEP
COLD LOW ALONG THE MONTANA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER, RIDGING OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE EAST TEXAS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO A HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION OPENING THE DOOR FOR GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH
NORTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST SLIDE SOUTH ALONG BAJA TO SUPPORT
THE MOIST FLOW. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WE WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH MID WEEK, WARMING MORE TO
THE TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MARK BY FRIDAY. THOUGH THE REGION WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAN JUANS WHERE STORMS
MAY BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THE MOISTURE
ISN'T DEEP, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER TO TEXAS
AND UP INTO COLORADO HAS A WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBTLE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS THAT PRODUCE WIDE VARIABILITY THE POSSIBLE WEATHER
OUTCOMES RANGING FROM CONTINUED INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER NORTH TO THE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEING SHUT OFF AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
DRY SOUTHWEST AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IF FAVORING THE LATTER, BUT THERE ARE ABOUT EQUAL CHANCES
EITHER WAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
TODAY, BUT NO IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CUMULUS AND BROKEN CIRRUS EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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