377
FXUS65 KGJT 040556
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE SAN JUANS.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST UT
AND NORTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON (1PM-7PM) DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RH.
- HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY, AND
LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY:
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE BLOCKING
LOW OVER THE BAJA FINALLY DRIFTS EAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TAP EAST OF THE DIVIDE, LEAVING THE WESTERN SLOPE HIGH AND
DRY. A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES JUMP 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. IF PLANNING ON RECREATING OUTDOORS, MAKE SURE
TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
70 WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD:
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE PNW, WHILE RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER THE PLAINS. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL
TIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY. THIS MEANS GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, AND LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN DRIVING
THESE CONDITIONS DOESN'T SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALIVE AND WELL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE FORECAST AT MOST SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A GUSTY AFTERNOON THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15% ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. HENCE, DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR UTZ486,
UTZ487, COZ200, AND COZ202 FROM 1PM TO 7PM. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
SURGE THIS WEEKEND AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN, ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ200-202.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ486-487.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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