093
FXUS65 KGJT 050519
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY, FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY OUT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO FOR FOR THAT DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WITH EACH
OTHER TRACKING THE WEAK LOW ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY PUSHING IT INTO EAST TEXAS BY SATURDAY. BEHIND
THIS LOW, A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UP INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY THAT WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. LOOK
FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT VALLEYS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY, A DEEP LOW DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTING UP
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES PUSHING THE EASTERN TROUGH OFF THE
EAST COAST TO FORM A WEAK OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN PUTS
THE REGION UNDER A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EACH DAY LASTING WELL IN TO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ABOUT FIVE DEGREES SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE TROUGH SETTING
UP TO OUR WEST, BUT WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE
HOT, AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS, EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DAILY THROUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH 15-25 KNOTS ARE MORE
LIKELY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH WETTING RAIN
IS UNLIKELY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING, WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS, PARTICULARLY FOR KTEX AND KGUC. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MDT THU JUN 4 2026
BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES LEADING TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
EVENTUALLY MIXING DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE RETURN OF HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR SATURDAY TO BE THE NEXT DAY FOR WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THEREFORE, FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO FOR SATURDAY (12PM-9PM). A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP TO KEEP THIS PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-207-290-292.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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