892
FXUS65 KGJT 061724
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
STAGNANT HOT, DRY, AND WINDY PATTERN
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACNW STALLS OUT,
TRAPPING OUR CWA UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL SIT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE LOW BUDGES.
THIS PLACES VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 90'S, MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE
UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S, AND MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE 60'S AND
70'S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES PAIR WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BRINGING STRONG GUSTS REGION-WIDE. FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25-35
MPH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40
MPH. AS THE TROUGH DIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS US ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, GUSTS WILL JUMP UP EVEN FURTHER. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS WITH MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO
HIT 50 MPH. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN DRY FLOW OVER US, MEANING THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT LATER NEXT WEEK ASIDE FROM
MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KTEX AND KASE AND PERHAPS KEGE UNTIL
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
OUR CWA IS LOOKING AT A LONG STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS BEING PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH STAGNANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR
OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH THIS, MOST FIRE ZONES THAT HAVE
CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES. THE MORE CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY COMES ON
TUESDAY THOUGH. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
PROMPTS AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITHOUT ANY RELIEF TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST
35 MPH. HOWEVER, WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE LOWER YAMPA
RIVER BASIN, UINTA BASIN, UTAH GRAND FLAT, AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHERE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
COINCIDING WITH THE MAINTAINED SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. OVER MULTIPLE FORECAST RUNS, THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
HIGH-END NATURE OF TUESDAY'S FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...BW
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