953
FXUS65 KGJT 062003
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
203 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES HOLD ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN LATE WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE DIGGING TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REGION.
THIS HAS PUSHED CURRENT TEMPERATURES WELL OVER NORMAL AND WE'VE
STILL GOT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF HEATING THAT WILL PUSH US TO NEAR
RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
AIRMASS REMAINS PERSISTENTLY DRY AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FLOW HAS PRODUCED A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ON THE
TERRAIN, INCLUDING A FEW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE
PRODUCED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WANES. DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT TO THE REGION
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO A WEAK PULSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
THAT IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASED THE
POPS FOR NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO, AS THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE ON THE TERRAIN, SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST WITH MUCH MORE LOCALIZED COVERAGE INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REGIME FAVORABLE TO NEW FIRE STARTS THANKS
TO LIGHTNING.
THE BLOCKING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO REAMPLIFY AS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE WEST DRIVES HEIGHT FIELDS UPWARD. THIS KEEPS US
ANCHORED BENEATH A HOT, DRY, WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WERE LEFT IN PLACE, AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED IN
SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES. SURFACE WIND FORECASTS ON TUESDAY REMAIN
CONCERNINGLY HIGH, GIVEN THE SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
PLACE. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHOWS SIGNS OF PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES(I.E. NEAR NORMAL). WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS HANGING ON OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH WEEK'S END. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF CONTRACTING TOWARDS JUST THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES FRIDAY THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH, WITH SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KTEX AND KASE AND PERHAPS KEGE UNTIL
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A LONG STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS BEING PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS BENEATH A STRONG SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH WITH ISOLATED VALUES
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN
PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES, WITH
UPGRADES LIKELY FOR THE WATCHES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY DUE TO A
PULSE OF MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST
DEEPENS. THIS COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS IN
NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AMPLIFY TUESDAY, WITH AN INCREASE CONCERN FOR HIGH-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS BENEATH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NO RELIEF TO SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 35 MPH. HOWEVER, THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN, UINTA
BASIN, UTAH GRAND FLAT, AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN CONCERT WITH THE SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MULTIPLE FORECAST RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PAINTING THESE STRONGER WINDS, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH-END NATURE OF TUESDAY'S FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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