318
FXUS65 KGJT 071154
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
554 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FOR NEXT
WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45
MPH, IF NOT HIGHER, BEING COMMON.
- HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE BUT ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE,
DAYTIME HEATING, AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS, MAYBE A QUICK STORM, FOR NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON ANY CONVECTION ON SURROUNDING HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NBM IS FOLLOWING SUIT SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAY NEED TO REVISIT TOMORROW TO REINTRODUCE POPS ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND SO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AS WELL AS
DRY LIGHTNING. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP TO
OUR WEST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE JET STREAM
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL
ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THIS HOT, DRY AND WINDY FORECAST WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL START DIMINISHING THURSDAY ONWARDS AFTER
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AT THE MOMENT, BUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS GUSTS WILL BEGIN AT MANY SITES. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST, AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A LONG STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS BEING PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS BENEATH A STRONG SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH WITH ISOLATED VALUES
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN
PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES, WITH
UPGRADES LIKELY FOR THE WATCHES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW DUE TO A
PULSE OF MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST
DEEPENS. THIS COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS IN
NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AMPLIFY TUESDAY, WITH INCREASED CONCERNS FOR HIGH-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS BENEATH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 35 MPH. HOWEVER, THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN, UINTA BASIN,
UTAH GRAND FLAT, AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, WINDS ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN CONCERT WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MULTIPLE FORECAST RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PAINTING THESE STRONGER WINDS, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH-END NATURE OF TUESDAY'S FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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