908
FXUS65 KGJT 071748
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1148 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FOR NEXT
WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45
MPH, IF NOT HIGHER, BEING COMMON.
- HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE BUT ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE,
DAYTIME HEATING, AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS, MAYBE A QUICK STORM, FOR NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON ANY CONVECTION ON SURROUNDING HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NBM IS FOLLOWING SUIT SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. MAY NEED TO REVISIT TOMORROW TO REINTRODUCE POPS ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND SO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AS WELL AS
DRY LIGHTNING. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP TO
OUR WEST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE JET STREAM
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL
ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THIS HOT, DRY AND WINDY FORECAST WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL START DIMINISHING THURSDAY ONWARDS AFTER
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKPOINT CEILINGS ARE NOT
FORECASTED. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AS WESTERLY WINDS
GUST UP TO AROUND 30-40 MPH AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR DARK AND LIGHTER NIGHT
TIME DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. A THREAT
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
LEFT THESE OUT OF TAFS WITH UNCERTAINTY HIGH. FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WOULD BE NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO, AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOR RAINFALL OR CEILINGS, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND LIGHTNING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A LONG STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS BEING PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS BENEATH A STRONG SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH WITH ISOLATED VALUES
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN
PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES, WITH
UPGRADES LIKELY FOR THE WATCHES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW DUE TO A
PULSE OF MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST
DEEPENS. THIS COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS IN
NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AMPLIFY TUESDAY, WITH INCREASED CONCERNS FOR HIGH-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS BENEATH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 35 MPH. HOWEVER, THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN, UINTA BASIN,
UTAH GRAND FLAT, AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, WINDS ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN CONCERT WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MULTIPLE FORECAST RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PAINTING THESE STRONGER WINDS, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH-END NATURE OF TUESDAY'S FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-203-205-207-290>293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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