072
FXUS65 KGJT 071804
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1204 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- EACH AFTERNOON GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THE
WINDIEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AND THOSE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45
MPH FOR SOME SPOTS.
- HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE PATTERN:
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS INCREASE
WITH EACH SYSTEM. THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THIS ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASE FLOW DOES
ADVECT SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAT MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL. TODAY THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS
MAINLY NORTHEAST UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO, AND TOMORROW
THOSE CHANCES ARE ALONG THE DIVIDE. AFTER THESE SYSTEMS PASS TO
OUR NORTH FLOW GENERALLY STAYS OUT OF THE WEST, AND IS DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER:
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE
FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL. THE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS. WIND GUSTS WILL VARY EACH DAY, BUT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH WILL
BE COMMON. THE WINDIEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AND THOSE GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 45 MPH FOR SOME SPOTS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH INCREASES
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AT THE MOMENT, BUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS GUSTS WILL BEGIN AT MANY SITES. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST, AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A LONG STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS BEING PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS BENEATH A STRONG SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH WITH ISOLATED VALUES
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN
PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES, WITH
UPGRADES LIKELY FOR THE WATCHES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AMPLIFIES ON TUESDAY, WITH INCREASED
CONCERNS FOR HIGH-END CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS
BENEATH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 35 MPH, HOWEVER GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
MULTIPLE FORECAST RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PAINTING THESE
STRONGER WINDS, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH-END
NATURE OF TUESDAY'S FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LIKELY PERSISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-203-205-207-290>293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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