249
FXUS65 KGJT 081713
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- EACH AFTERNOON GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THE
WINDIEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AND THOSE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45
MPH FOR SOME SPOTS.
- HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE PATTERN:
LOOKING AT THE BROADER PICTURE, TROUGHING DOMINATES OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE RIDGING IS IN PLACE TO THE EAST. THIS PLACES EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO SQUARELY UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING SOME INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE
SURFACE, DRY AIR DOMINATES, MEANING THAT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE FAR MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND LIGHTNING, RATHER THAN HEAVY RAIN. THIS ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, DISCUSSED BELOW. LITTLE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENING IN RESPONSE.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY. THE REGION DOES REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, KEEPING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER:
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. VERY DRY SURFACE LEVELS, WITH
MINIMUM DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY. WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH
ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY. WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL, RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR
FURTHER OUT IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT ARE FORECAST AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER
TONIGHT FOR A FEW SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A LONG STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH INDICATIONS OF LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS
BEING PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS BENEATH A
STRONG SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS
WILL GUST 25-35 MPH WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES, WITH UPGRADES LIKELY FOR THE WATCHES IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AMPLIFIES ON TUESDAY, WITH INCREASED CONCERNS
FOR HIGH-END CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS BENEATH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH,
HOWEVER GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. MULTIPLE FORECAST RUNS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PAINTING THESE STRONGER WINDS, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH-END NATURE OF TUESDAY'S FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LIKELY PERSISTS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>293-295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-203-205-207-290>293-295.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293-295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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