057
FXUS65 KGJT 091150
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, TENTATIVELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH TOMORROW COUPLED WITH
NEAR SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TOMORROW WITH WETTING RAINS UNLIKELY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END OUT THE WEEK WITH THE
THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING BECOMING HIGHLY
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
NEW FIRE STARTS AND A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS
PACKAGE. A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PATTERN FOR EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS HAS SET UP WITH A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH DIGGING INTO
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE. OUR CWA IS IN THE INTERFACE OF THESE FEATURES
WHICH IS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE CREATED A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL
ADD AN ELEMENT OF HEIGHTENED CONCERN TO THE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW. GOES ALPW SHOW
A BATCH OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVECT
THROUGH SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE DRY LOW LAYERS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS MINIMAL
MOISTURE WILL BE MAKING TO THE GROUND...WITH WIND AND LIGHTNING
THE MORE LIKELY THREATS. PROBABLY DON'T NEED TO SAY ANY NEW FIRE
STARTS AHEAD OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ARRIVING LATER IN
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOT OPTIMAL. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER MANY OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE AS WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 50 MPH DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING ALONG WITH A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE
MOVING IN WITH THE TROUGH AND LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM A COOL
FRONT MOVES THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS OF COURSE
IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE AS A RESULT. ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND IF
THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING WILL BE
ELIMINATED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
WINDS DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, BUT FIRE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THIS TREND LIKELY CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES SURGE IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES
OVER NORMAL AGAIN. THIS HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AGAIN. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
RETURN MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD BENEATH THE HIGH FRIDAY AND
BEYOND. WHETHER THIS YIELDS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND, REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
THAT WE REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, HOPING FOR A
FEW CLOUDS AND A SHOWER TO CHIP AWAY AT THE HEAT A BIT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 KTS FROM ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 03Z
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTING TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE FROM LOCAL WILDFIRES AND BLOWING
DUST. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT REDUCED VISBILITIES IN
ANY SPECIFIC TAFS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR THESE TO LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES SURGE 10
DEGREES OVER NORMAL. WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE
NEAR THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN
PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES ON THURSDAY HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING UPGRADED IN
LATER FORECASTS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AGAINST
THE DIVIDE, PROMPTING ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS HOT, DRY, WINDY PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
ABATING THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ002-007-008-011-020>022.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ201-205-207-291>295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490-491.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ022.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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