228
FXUS65 KGJT 141836
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1236 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
- FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL.
- DAYTIME HIGHS BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, RETURNING
TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE HAS OUTSTRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS,
BUT A SMALLER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ROUGHLY
OVER WYOMING. WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ANTICYLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH RESIDES A STRONG POOL A MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH, WE ARE
SITTING ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE ADVECTED MOISTURE, BUT THIS IS
ENOUGH TO DRIVE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IS SUPPORTED. THIS IS PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WHERE STRONGER FLOW EXISTS. AS SUCH, WE'RE EYING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AROUND
THE SAN JUANS WITH MORE MODEST POTENTIAL SPANNING INTO THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS, ABAJOS, AND LA SAL'S. OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, THOUGH QPF IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE IN THESE AREAS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL BE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK
ON THE MOST RECENT BURN SCARS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION, BURN SCAR
FLOODING RISK ACCOMPANIES AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES.
PER CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
FOR THE LONG-TERM STAGNATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CAUSE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COME DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
THIS WEEK THOUGH. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REBUILDING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE AXIS RE-CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE STREAM OF MOISTURE ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD PUSH FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR CWA.
CONVERSELY, TROPICAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO COULD REINVIGORATE THE MOISTURE SUPPLY
FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THESE FEATURES ARE WORTH
WATCHING, BUT IT IS WELL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE HOW OUR WEATHER
WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND REMAINS THE MAIN
THREAT THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TIMING
AND COVERAGE NEAR TAF SITES BUT KTEX...KDRO AND KGUC WILL BE
FAVORED FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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