184
FXUS65 KGJT 150004
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
604 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
- FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL.
- DAYTIME HIGHS BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, RETURNING
TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE HAS OUTSTRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS,
BUT A SMALLER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ROUGHLY
OVER WYOMING. WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ANTICYLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH RESIDES A STRONG POOL A MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH, WE ARE
SITTING ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE ADVECTED MOISTURE, BUT THIS IS
ENOUGH TO DRIVE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IS SUPPORTED. THIS IS PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WHERE STRONGER FLOW EXISTS. AS SUCH, WE'RE EYING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AROUND
THE SAN JUANS WITH MORE MODEST POTENTIAL SPANNING INTO THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS, ABAJOS, AND LA SAL'S. OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, THOUGH QPF IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE IN THESE AREAS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL BE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK
ON THE MOST RECENT BURN SCARS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION, BURN SCAR
FLOODING RISK ACCOMPANIES AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES.
PER CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
FOR THE LONG-TERM STAGNATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CAUSE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COME DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
THIS WEEK THOUGH. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REBUILDING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE AXIS RE-CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE STREAM OF MOISTURE ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD PUSH FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR CWA.
CONVERSELY, TROPICAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO COULD REINVIGORATE THE MOISTURE SUPPLY
FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THESE FEATURES ARE WORTH
WATCHING, BUT IT IS WELL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE HOW OUR WEATHER
WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME 50 MPH
GUSTS NEAR COLLAPSING CELLS. THIS THREAT WILL WIND DOWN NEAR
DARK AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUME OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AROUND SHOWERS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ILS
BREAKPOINT CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN EMERGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON THE TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN, THEN DRIFT
OUT ACROSS THE VALLEYS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPO BREAKPOINT CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL
ACCOMPANY STORMS AGAIN TOO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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