379
FXUS65 KGJT 150454
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK, FAVORING THE SAN JUANS, BUT SPREADING NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND.
- FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL.
- DAYTIME HIGHS COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, RETURNING TO NEAR-
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO THE WEST A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS WORKING EAST IN UNDER THE HIGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LOOK FOR THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE PWATS ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY. OF CONCERN IS THAT
THESE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH WHICH INCREASES THE RISKS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON RECENT FIRE SCARS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES ON THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
AND BE ALERT TO THE WEATHER AND ANY WEATHER WARNINGS IF YOU ARE IN
THE AREA OF A RECENT FIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INCREASING CLOUDS
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS COOL THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL HAVE HIGHS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TO ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTH. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO
COOL TEMPERATURES ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE PEAK
OF DIURNAL HEATING. AT A WEEK OUT IT'S A STRETCH, BUT WE CAN ALWAYS
HOPE...
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME 50 MPH
GUSTS NEAR COLLAPSING CELLS. THIS THREAT WILL WIND DOWN NEAR
DARK AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUME OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AROUND SHOWERS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ILS
BREAKPOINT CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN EMERGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON THE TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN, THEN DRIFT
OUT ACROSS THE VALLEYS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPO BREAKPOINT CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL
ACCOMPANY STORMS AGAIN TOO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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