980
FXUS65 KGJT 172326
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN VULNERABLE TERRAIN,
INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOISTURE CONSISTING OF PWAT VALUES AROUND 150-200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. INITIATION WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE VALLEYS AS OUTFLOWS DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THESE OUTFLOWS COLLIDE WITH EACH OTHER
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED STORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 35-45 MPH ON THE TABLE AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA
BURNS SCARS. THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW DISCUSSES THIS RISK IN
GREATER DETAIL. THESE STORMS CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY, SO BE SURE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AND HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER ALERTS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE VISITING OR RESIDE BELOW TERRAIN THAT IS
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING, INCLUDING DOWNSTREAM OF ACTIVE
FIRES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT
SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH THEN. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL
BE SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WHERE THE CONVECTION FORMS AND DRIFTS
OFF THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING, BUT COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE MOVE PAST 00Z. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS INCLUDE LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOWS (35-40MPH), AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WINDS WILL RETURN TO TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LIGHTER SPEEDS. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGS A SIMILAR SETUP AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME TO SPREAD DOWN TOWARDS THE VALLEYS. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THREATS ABOVE WILL BE THE SAME FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
STORMS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THESE RATES
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ESPECIALLY OVER
RECENT BURN SCARS.
STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELPED PRIME LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND SATURATE THE GROUND WHERE RAIN WAS OBSERVED.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO REPORTED OVER 0.5
INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 30 MINUTES; WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO CREATE ISSUES IN OUR STEEP, ROCKY TERRAIN THAT IS ALREADY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALSO TRIGGERS
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OVER RECENT (OR ACTIVELY BURNING) FIRES,
DUE TO THE BURNT GROUND'S INABILITY OF ABSORBING MOISTURE UNDER
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS SUCH, WE CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THIS REGIME.
AS A REMINDER: KEEP AN EYE ON OUR FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED HYDROLOGY ALERTS IF
VISITING OR IF YOU RESIDE BELOW VULNERABLE TERRAIN TO FLASH
FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORMS ACROSS THE WEST DEVELOP
QUICKLY, LEAVING LITTLE ROOM FOR LEAD TIME IN FLASHY TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW
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