793
FXUS65 KGJT 191720
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1120 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JUANS, INCLUDING THE GOLD MOUNTAIN BURN SCAR, AS HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
- STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS IN VULNERABLE TERRAIN, INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
RINSE AND REPEAT. THAT'S THE GOING FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS THE AREA. ADD TO THAT PWATS OF
150 TO 200% OF NORMAL, HIGHER CAPE VALUES INDICATING PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE (AND WILL REMAIN
SO) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED UNDER THE STRONGER
CELLS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING. THIS IS A TWO- EDGED SWORD, HOWEVER. THE RAIN IS GOOD
FOR THE DROUGHT, NOT SO GOOD FOR THE BURN SCARS. IT'S NOT JUST
THE BURN SCARS THAT HAVE OCCURRED THIS YEAR EITHER. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES BURNS SCARS FROM PREVIOUS YEARS. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES
MOVE OVER ANY BURN SCARS, THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS INCREASES. TO THAT END, DID ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS, TO INCLUDE THE GOLD
MOUNTAIN BURN SCAR, FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS SATURATED THE AREA SO IF WE GET
ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER RAIN TODAY, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE'LL BE SEEING CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME DAYS MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS. THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGH WILL ALSO CAUSE STORM MOTION TO CHANGE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY VERSUS EASTERLY AS WE'RE SEEING NOW. THIS WON'T OCCUR
UNTIL NEXT WEEK SO WE'LL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DROP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THANKS
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP (PERHAPS?)
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
FOR THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO LIKE TO GET OUTSIDE AND GO HIKING,
RAFTING, FISHING, ETC., PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST
FORECAST AND ADJUST YOUR PLANS AS NEEDED. GETTING OUT EARLIER
IS BETTER, BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z GENERALLY ENDING BY 06Z. THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY
IMPACT TAF SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
CONVECTION WILL BE LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (30-40KTS),
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. THESE RATES
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ESPECIALLY OVER
RECENT BURN SCARS.
STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELPED PRIME LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND SATURATE THE GROUND WHERE RAIN WAS OBSERVED.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO HAVE REPORTED 0.5
TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 30 MINUTES WHICH IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ISSUES IN OUR STEEP, ROCKY TERRAIN. THIS
TERRAIN WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS HEIGHTENED
AWARENESS OVER RECENT (OR ACTIVELY BURNING) FIRES DUE TO THE
BURNT GROUND'S INABILITY OF ABSORBING MOISTURE UNDER HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS SUCH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THIS REGIME. TO THAT END,
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY, SUNDAY, FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUANS AS THEY HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING THERE.
AS A REMINDER: KEEP AN EYE ON OUR FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED HYDROLOGY ALERTS IF
VISITING OR IF YOU RESIDE BELOW VULNERABLE TERRAIN TO FLASH
FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORMS ACROSS THE WEST DEVELOP
QUICKLY, LEAVING LITTLE ROOM FOR LEAD TIME IN FLASHY TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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