426
FXUS65 KGJT 200211
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
811 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JUANS, INCLUDING THE GOLD MOUNTAIN BURN SCAR, AS HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
- STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS IN VULNERABLE TERRAIN, INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR THE
EVENING. HENCE, ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
RINSE AND REPEAT. THAT'S THE GOING FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS THE AREA. ADD TO THAT PWATS OF
150 TO 200% OF NORMAL, HIGHER CAPE VALUES INDICATING PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE (AND WILL REMAIN
SO) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED UNDER THE STRONGER
CELLS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING. THIS IS A TWO- EDGED SWORD, HOWEVER. THE RAIN IS GOOD
FOR THE DROUGHT, NOT SO GOOD FOR THE BURN SCARS. IT'S NOT JUST
THE BURN SCARS THAT HAVE OCCURRED THIS YEAR EITHER. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES BURNS SCARS FROM PREVIOUS YEARS. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES
MOVE OVER ANY BURN SCARS, THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS INCREASES. TO THAT END, DID ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS, TO INCLUDE THE GOLD
MOUNTAIN BURN SCAR, FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS SATURATED THE AREA SO IF WE GET
ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER RAIN TODAY, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE'LL BE SEEING CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME DAYS MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS. THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGH WILL ALSO CAUSE STORM MOTION TO CHANGE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY VERSUS EASTERLY AS WE'RE SEEING NOW. THIS WON'T OCCUR
UNTIL NEXT WEEK SO WE'LL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DROP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THANKS
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP (PERHAPS?)
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
FOR THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO LIKE TO GET OUTSIDE AND GO HIKING,
RAFTING, FISHING, ETC., PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST
FORECAST AND ADJUST YOUR PLANS AS NEEDED. GETTING OUT EARLIER
IS BETTER, BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS
EVENING, BUT POSE LITTLE THREAT TO MOST TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 01Z. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING, BUT APPEAR TO
RETURN TO LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SKIES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MID LEVEL
DEVELOPMENT TAKES SHAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MORE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY START OUT
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL THAT SAID, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. THESE RATES
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ESPECIALLY OVER
RECENT BURN SCARS.
STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELPED PRIME LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND SATURATE THE GROUND WHERE RAIN WAS OBSERVED.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO HAVE REPORTED 0.5
TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 30 MINUTES WHICH IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ISSUES IN OUR STEEP, ROCKY TERRAIN. THIS
TERRAIN WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS HEIGHTENED
AWARENESS OVER RECENT (OR ACTIVELY BURNING) FIRES DUE TO THE
BURNT GROUND'S INABILITY OF ABSORBING MOISTURE UNDER HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS SUCH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THIS REGIME. TO THAT END,
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY, SUNDAY, FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUANS AS THEY HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING THERE.
AS A REMINDER: KEEP AN EYE ON OUR FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED HYDROLOGY ALERTS IF
VISITING OR IF YOU RESIDE BELOW VULNERABLE TERRAIN TO FLASH
FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORMS ACROSS THE WEST DEVELOP
QUICKLY, LEAVING LITTLE ROOM FOR LEAD TIME IN FLASHY TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...BS
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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