036
FXUS65 KGJT 060503
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GUNNISON RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUANS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO HEAT UP AGAIN. MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH IS MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT FLOW OF HOT AND DRY AIR
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH OVERHEAD
THAT THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ISN'T MAKING IT TO OUR
REGION, SOMEWHAT HAMPERING WINDS AND GUSTS. HOWEVER, SOME MILD
ENHANCEMENT IN SAID UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA THURSDAY, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE
FORECAST SUPPORTING STRONG MIXING, THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROMPT SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND YET ANOTHER
DAY OF SCATTERED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ON THURSDAY,
THESE CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE GUNNISON RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS. AS THE HIGH LIFTS
SUBTLY NORTHWARDS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS DIE OFF
ONCE MORE, LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM VERY LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS DOES COINCIDE
WITH ANOTHER HEAT-UP THOUGH, RAISING VALLEY LOCATIONS BACK TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN TO BREAK
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CHANGES NEXT WEEK
AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE SNEAKING UP UNDERNEATH
THE HIGH BRINGING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE LOWER THAN 6SM. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MARGINALLY ACROSS THE GUNNISON RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN SAN JUANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A ENHANCED
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE UNFORTUNATE PART OF THIS
IS THAT THESE STRONGER WINDS (AND ALREADY ESTABLISHED SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES) ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH THE ELK
FIRE AND POTENTIALLY THE GOLD MOUNTAIN FIRE. WINDS DO REMAIN ON
THE MARGINAL SIDE OF FIRE CONCERNS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA NONETHELESS. AS A RESULT,
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COLORADO ZONES 292 AND 293.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
MORE LOCALIZED, THOUGH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE REGION-WIDE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ292-293.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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