606
FXUS65 KGJT 061742
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GUNNISON RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUANS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO HEAT UP AGAIN. MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH IS MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT FLOW OF HOT AND DRY AIR
THROUGH THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH OVERHEAD
THAT THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ISN'T MAKING IT TO OUR
REGION, SOMEWHAT HAMPERING WINDS AND GUSTS. HOWEVER, SOME MILD
ENHANCEMENT IN SAID UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA THURSDAY, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE
FORECAST SUPPORTING STRONG MIXING, THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROMPT SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND YET ANOTHER
DAY OF SCATTERED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ON THURSDAY,
THESE CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE GUNNISON RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS. AS THE HIGH LIFTS
SUBTLY NORTHWARDS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS DIE OFF
ONCE MORE, LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM VERY LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS DOES COINCIDE
WITH ANOTHER HEAT-UP THOUGH, RAISING VALLEY LOCATIONS BACK TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN TO BREAK
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CHANGES NEXT WEEK
AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE SNEAKING UP UNDERNEATH
THE HIGH BRINGING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
HAZY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
HOWEVER, VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6SM. GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MARGINALLY ACROSS THE GUNNISON RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN SAN JUANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A ENHANCED
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE UNFORTUNATE PART OF THIS
IS THAT THESE STRONGER WINDS (AND ALREADY ESTABLISHED SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES) ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH THE ELK
FIRE AND POTENTIALLY THE GOLD MOUNTAIN FIRE. WINDS DO REMAIN ON
THE MARGINAL SIDE OF FIRE CONCERNS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA NONETHELESS. AS A RESULT,
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COLORADO ZONES 292 AND 293.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
MORE LOCALIZED, THOUGH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE REGION-WIDE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ292-293.
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
DISCUSSION...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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