883
FXUS65 KGJT 070238
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
838 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO HEAT UP AGAIN. MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
- THERE IS A CHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
UPDATED TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT FOR CO
FIRE ZONES 292 AND 293 AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS STILL IN THE TEENS
BUT BELOW 15 PERCENT BUT IS STARTING TO RECOVER ABOVE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DOMINATING THE PATTERN. TROUGHING TO THE
NORTHEAST HAS PUSHED INCREASED WINDS ALOFT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, LOOK FOR STRONGER
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE GUNNISON BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, IS
GENERATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HENCE A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS. THOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS IN OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS ARE MORE MARGINAL NOT WARRANTING A WARNING, UNDERSTAND THAT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION. EXERCISE EXTRA CARE IF YOU ARE OUT IN THE FOREST
OR WILDERNESS AREAS TODAY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD, SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE WINDS, BUT LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES SOARING TO
ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REACHING RECORD TERRITORY AGAIN.
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM IN
THE GRAND VALLEY IN COLORADO AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH FROM I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH. IT IS WISE TO AVOID BEING OUT IN THE
SUN DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING AND TAKE REGULAR BREAKS FROM STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES.
LOOKING OUT IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING UP UNDER THE HIGH SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS MOISTURE,
INCREASING THE CLOUDS TO REDUCE THE DIURNAL HEATING AND COOL
TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT THE ENSEMBLES ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC, KEEPING
THE HIGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST BARRING THE DOOR TO THE
MOISTURE. THERE'S NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EITHER WAY, SO STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
GUSTS ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO DWINDLE, BUT COULD STILL REACH
18-22 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME NON-IMPACTFUL SMOKE.
WINDS MAY STILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW, THOUGH GUSTS AT TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW 20 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP MARGINALLY ACROSS THE GUNNISON RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN SAN JUANS. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE STRONGER
WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERLAP WITH THE ELK FIRE AND POTENTIALLY THE GOLD MOUNTAIN
FIRE. WINDS DO REMAIN ON THE MARGINAL SIDE OF FIRE CONCERNS, BUT
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
NONETHELESS. AS A RESULT, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COLORADO ZONES 292 AND 293. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LOCALIZED, THOUGH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE REGIONWIDE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006.
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
UPDATE...TGJT
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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