452
FXUS65 KGJT 070515
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1115 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO HEAT UP AGAIN. MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COVERAGE INCREASING BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
HOT AND DRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WEST WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP A BIT MORE WITH LOWER
VALLEYS SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE GRAND VALLEY AND LOWER DESERT VALLEYS
OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED EARLIER FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE
CENTER MORE OVERHEAD, THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL RELAX SOME SO EVEN
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE VERY DRY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WINDS OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. SOME MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND THE HIGH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO AT
LEAST RESULT IN A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS AND SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BUT LOOK
TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER ANY WETTING RAIN. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH AT THIS POINT AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS HOT
AND DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO SUSTAIN ANY
CONVECTION IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
POTENTIAL MOISTURE RETURN NEXT WEEK:
A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK, TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE IN PLACE A BIT AND IN TURN ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN
SNEAKING IN UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO OVERCOME THIS PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY AIR MASS BUT
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN (MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN) AND MORE STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST AND NUDGES THE HIGH FURTHER EAST
TO DRAW UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION,
TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH THE CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 10 OR
SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS HOT, DRY PATTERN SO THIS WOULD
BE A WELCOME CHANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
SKIES WILL BE HAZY/SMOKY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006.
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
DISCUSSION...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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