613
FXUS65 KGJT 080445
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COVERAGE INCREASING BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER WETTING RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HOT AND DRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ADVECT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS SOME MOISTURE SNEAKS IN UNDER THE RIDGE,
GUIDED BY A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMES IN A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY DUE TO LACK
OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLEARER
SKIES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN HOT WITH A
DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND AND SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR US
TO OVERCOME THIS HOT AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (5 PERCENT OR
LESS). HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR
OUR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DESERT VALLEYS WITH THE
GRAND VALLEY IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO ONLY SEEING HEAT ADVISORY
FOR SATURDAY AS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK:
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. STORM
COVERAGE AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT APPEARS LIKE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF WETTING RAIN WHILE THE LOWER VALLEYS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. IT
APPEARS LIKE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HONING IN ON
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME FOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE WEST COAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
DRAW A MORE DIRECT SOUTHERLY TAP OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING AS THE GFS IS
INDICATING A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AND UP THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO NEXT THURSDAY. WITH THE
ADDITION OF FORCING PROVIDED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES, THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS WELL IN THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. THESE DETAILS HOWEVER ARE NOT CERTAIN AND UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE
PUSH, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MID TO LATE WEEK JUMP IN
QPF, PWAT AND POP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINALS MAY SEE BREEZY DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. TOMORROW, SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HDN POTENTIALLY
SEEING 25-KT AFTERNOON GUSTS. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS TOMORROW, BUT OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006.
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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