873
FXUS65 KGJT 101115
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
515 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LINGERING THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND IS SPREADING INTO WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AS A
REMNANT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY LIGHT
RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS SINCE THE LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL DRY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD BUT
GET FLATTENED A BIT FOR MONDAY, STILL CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. SO FOR MONDAY, WE WILL SEE MOISTURE RECYCLED UNDER THIS
HIGH IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO LOWER VALLEYS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT COLLAPSING AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION. THE HIGH GETS
NUDGED A BIT EAST TUESDAY BUT REMAINS OVERHEAD SO CAN ANTICIPATE
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS AND LOW CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST
AND NUDGES THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO ADVECT DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD FOR THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASING
CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF WETTING RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS WELL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY.
CONVECTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL DUE TO THIS ADDED FORCING AND LIFT. STORMS DURING THIS
MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WITH STORM MOTION AND SPEED PLAYING A ROLE WITH
REGARDS TO HEAVY RAIN. FOR OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS, PLEASE PAY
ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORE NORMAL
AUGUST VALUES, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND PLACED IN PROB30 GROUPS AT
SEVERAL TAF SITES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST. VFR IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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