026
FNUS75 KGJT 111956
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR BABYLON FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
156 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 MDT ON AUGUST 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOISTER WEATHER IS STEADILY ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY, NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS, SO ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
POSE A HIGH RISK OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AS THINGS MOISTEN UP
FURTHER ON THURSDAY, THE WIND THREAT DECREASES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PROMPTING DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS.
CHANCES OF LIGHTNING EXIST ALL DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/
DOWNVALLEY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR (6000 KNOT-FT)
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
MPH OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...25 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 4-7 MPH BECOMING
NORTHWEST 6-10 MPH BY 1100 MDT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...50 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR DECREASING TO POOR (5000 KNOT-FT)
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...25 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...55 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...BRAEDEN WINTERS
REQUESTED BY...APRIL GROOVER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619447.0/GJT
.DELDT 08/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANTHONY_COLLINS@FIRENET.GOV,APRIL.GROOVER@USDA.GOV,VICTORIA_PAYNE@FIRENET.GOV
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