784
FXUS65 KGJT 260018
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
618 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS WEEK WILL SEE DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN ~5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO START
THE WEEK AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
GRADUAL WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND, AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THAT SAID, SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNDER THE HIGH, WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES
REMAINING 100-150% OF NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIMITED
DYNAMIC FORCING MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RELY ON
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO FORM, RESULTING ACTIVITY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORMS THAT
FORM, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS FORM OVER A
SENSITIVE AREA, OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH DEBRIS FLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT BURN SCARS.
AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND, AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
WINDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THAT ALL DEPENDS ON WHETHER DRIER AIR IS
ABLE TO PUSH IN, OR IF WETTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME, AS SOME DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR WETTER CONDITIONS, WHILE OTHERS ARE RUNNING DRIER.
IT'S SOMETHING TO STAY TUNED FOR. TROUGHING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INTRODUCING A WETTER AND
COOLER PATTERN. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
HIGHER ELEVATION AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z, AFTER WHICH CONVECTION
WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page