616
FXUS65 KGJT 270438
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT TO
FLASH FLOODING OVER BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND ALSO BRINGS WETTER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE S.ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE ARCTIC...BEING SQUEEZED
BETWEEN DEEPER UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS. THERE IS ALSO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE SE PACIFIC THAT WILL BE FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE RING OF FIRE AROUND THE HIGH. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST
PWAT UPSTREAM OF US TO END THE WEEK THEN FEED THE BETTER FORCING
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN THE ROCKIES RIDGE. DYNAMIC TROP FIELDS SHOW A WEAK
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP
SOME CLOUDS IF NOT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE.
THIS LEAVES US UNDER WEAK FORCING AGAIN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY TERRAIN FORCED CONVECTION EXPECTED SIMILAR TO TODAY.
DRIER LOW LAYERS WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MORE THAN HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT THE RIGHT STORM OVER A RECENT BURN SCAR COULD STILL
CAUSE SOME ISSUES. FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR HOWEVER THE
WINDS LOOK BE PICKING UP A BIT AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER INLAND AND BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE RIDGE AND TIGHTEN
THE SW GRADIENT ALOFT. HDWI SHOWS A WEAK SIGNAL OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC REMAINS AN ACTIVE UPSTREAM IMPACT TO THE
PATTERN SHIFT SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A DEEPER POOL OF COOLER,
WETTER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY. THIS, DARE I SAY, LOOKS MORE FALL-
LIKE GIVEN THE EROSION OF THE MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
I'M SURE WE STILL HAVE SOME WARM DAYS AHEAD OF US, BUT THIS NEXT
WEEK LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COULD PLAY INTO LOCAL MOISTURE SUPPLIES LATER
NEXT WEEK. THIS PLAYS INTO SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY AND COULD
SUPPLY SOME NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE WEST SLOPE...FINGERS CROSSED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION IMPACTING KTEX AND KDRO WHERE TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN
PLACE THROUGH 03Z. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z FOR
KGUC, KCNY AND KVEL AS STORMS ARE DISTANT BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. MAINLY EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 35 KTS WITH ANY CONVECTION AND BRIEF MVFR DUE TO RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZES. LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND
OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ON THURSDAY AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GJT/LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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