093
FXUS65 KGJT 271914
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
114 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
HOT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER THE HIGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS FORECASTED TO WARM TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS AND
SUSCEPTIBLETERRAIN, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK IS LOW.
COOLER AND WETTER THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LIKELY SET MOST OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
UP FOR A CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
PWATS SURGE TO ~175% OF NORMAL. SIMILAR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE UPTICK IN MOSITURE WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IF
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WEAKER THAN THOSE THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME MORE
EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING.
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT PWATS OF >150% OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY MID WEEK, ANOTHER SOLID PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK.
AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK,
SO WE'LL ALSO BE TRACK THAT TO SEE IF WE CAN TAP INTO ANY OF
THAT RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
AFTERNOON TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TERMINALS
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS COULD SEE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE VALLEYS AND
TERMINALS. INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA AT KTEX, AS ITS HIGHER ELEVATION
PUTS IT CLOSER TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, BUT
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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