970
FXUS65 KGJT 280529
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING OVER BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
- A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
HOT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
OVERALL HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SOME REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH SO
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ANY FLOODING CONCERNS OVER BURN SCARS REMAINS VERY LOW
AND LOCALIZED AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SO SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
PUSHES INLAND AND ALLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.
COOLER AND WETTER THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION BUT OVERALL, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. PWAT ANOMALIES SURGE UPWARDS TOWARDS 150
TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARDS NEVADA AND NORTHWEST UTAH. STORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DUE TO LIMITED SURFACE HEATING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER FORCING
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PACNW TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BEHIND THIS TROUGH.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSH,
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND VULNERABLE TERRAIN.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TUESDAY AND BEYOND, DECREASING
CONFIDENCE WITH A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE AND SOME DRIER AIR
POTENTIALLY ENTERING FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS COVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH STORMS
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATE
ANOTHER MOISTURE PUSH LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION HEADING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, SO
WE'LL ALSO BE TRACKING THAT TO SEE IF WE CAN TAP INTO ANY OF
THAT RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL DESPITE
MODEL DIFFERENCES, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE SHIFTING TOWARDS A
COOLER, WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MONTH
OF SEPTEMBER. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
SOME CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, MAYBE A QUICK SHOWER BUT
NO TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED. MORE CONVECTION ON TAP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE KASE AND KTEX SEEING A SHOWER/STORM SO
INCLUDED IN PROB30 GROUPS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS WINDS PICK UP SOME WITH GUSTS OF 25KTS
BEING COMMON AT SEVERAL TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page